Introduction
Ørsted (CPH: ORSTED), the Danish offshore wind leader, has been battered by collapsing profits, weak wind conditions, and political headwinds. Shares have fallen nearly 90% since 2021 highs. On Friday, shareholders approved a 60 billion DKK ($9.4 billion) rights issue, offering a much-needed survival plan. The question now: can Ørsted stage a comeback, or is this a temporary reprieve?
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Financial Performance
- Rights issue: $9.4 billion approved.
- Operating profit outlook cut after weak wind speeds in July/August.
- Shares up +2.9% after announcement, but still down ~90% from peak.
Key Highlights
- Ørsted sues Trump administration after U.S. orders halt of Revolution Wind project (80% complete, enough to power 350,000 homes).
- Capital raise buys time amid rising debt costs and revenue pressures.
- Citi analysts call profit warning “minor” but sentiment still fragile.
Profitability and Valuation
- Ørsted trades at distressed multiples, reflecting its balance-sheet stress.
- Profitability has been hit by project delays, wind variability, and policy risk.
- If execution stabilizes, today’s valuation could prove oversold.
Debt and Leverage
- Heavy debt levels amplified refinancing risks amid higher rates.
- Rights issue helps strengthen capital structure but dilutes equity.
Growth Prospects
Despite setbacks, Ørsted remains a global leader in offshore wind with long-term exposure to the green energy transition. Winning lawsuits and stabilizing U.S. projects could reignite growth.
Technical Analysis
- Short-term (1–3 months): Resistance at 400 DKK; breakout could target 450–480 DKK.
- Medium-term (6–12 months): Recovery possible toward 600–650 DKK.
- Long-term (18–24 months): If U.S. projects resume and cash flow stabilizes, potential rebound to 800–900 DKK.
Stop Loss: 340 DKK
Potential Catalysts
- Court ruling on Revolution Wind lawsuit.
- Stabilization of U.S. policy toward renewables.
- Stronger-than-expected wind conditions in H2 2025.
- Partnerships or new project wins in Asia/Europe.
Leadership and Strategic Direction
Management faces a credibility test. The rights issue and lawsuit demonstrate Ørsted’s commitment to survival, but execution and transparency will be critical for restoring investor trust.
Impact of Macroeconomic Factors
- U.S. politics remain a wildcard.
- Rising interest rates increase financing costs for large-scale renewable projects.
- Global green transition policies remain a tailwind for long-term demand.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The offshore wind TAM is projected to exceed $1 trillion globally by 2040. Ørsted still commands significant expertise and scale, positioning it to capture share if it survives near-term turbulence.
Market Sentiment and Engagement
Investors are cautiously optimistic after the rights issue approval, but many remain skeptical after a 90% drawdown. Retail traders eye Ørsted as a potential deep-value turnaround play.
Conclusions, Target Price Objectives, and Stop Losses
Ørsted is in survival mode, but approval of its $9.4B rights issue buys time. With projects stalled, litigation pending, and profitability pressured, risks remain high — but so does the upside if recovery materializes.
- Short-term target: 450–480 DKK
- Medium-term target: 600–650 DKK
- Long-term target: 800–900 DKK
- Stop Loss: 340 DKK
For bold investors, Ørsted offers a high-risk, high-reward green energy turnaround story.
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This analysis serves as information only and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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