Strong earnings, rallying stock, and a run toward $1,000 — but at $964, is it already too late to buy?
Goldman Sachs is a financial titan. From net interest income and trading to asset management and M&A advisory, the firm excels across all cycles.
But with the stock nearing $1,000, its valuation is starting to look speculative. A pullback to ~$800 — or even a 50% correction — would offer far better long-term positioning.
1. Consolidated Financial Performance (FY 2024 – FY 2025 – TTM)
| Key Metric | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | $8.1B | $13.6B | $13.6B | +68.3% |
| Non-Interest Income | $45.4B | $26.7B | $41.1B | Volatile |
| Total Net Revenue | ~$53.5B | ~$40.3B | ~$54.7B | Healthy rebound |
| Operating Income | $18.6B | $3.9B | $18.3B | Sharp recovery |
| Net Income | $13.5B | $16.3B | $16.3B | +20% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $40.54 | $51.32 | $51.30 | +26.5% |
| Net Margin | 10.7% | 15.2% | 13.4% | Improving |
📌 Key Insights:
- Strong rebound in net income and earnings per share — GS is back to historical profitability levels.
- Revenue is volatile, especially in non-interest income (trading, fees, investment banking).
- EPS growth is sharp, driven partly by active share repurchase strategy.
2. Margins: Good, Not Exceptional
| Margin Type | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | TTM | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Margin | 14.6% | 3.6% | 15.1% | Strong bounce-back from 2025 |
| Net Margin | 10.7% | 15.2% | 13.4% | Solid for a global investment bank |
💬 Margin Takeaway:
Goldman isn’t trying to match tech-level margins, but it’s a very profitable financial machine — especially in strong economic cycles.
3. Valuation & Market Structure (Current Price: $964)
| Valuation Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | 18.4x | High for a cyclical financial stock |
| Price / Sales | 2.26x | Slightly stretched |
| Market Cap | ~$283B | Recent rally boosted valuation |
📉 Valuation Summary:
At $964, GS is priced like a growth stock, not a bank — this is risky.
To ensure long-term upside, two re-entry zones are recommended:
- 🔻 Pullback to $800
- 🔻 Or correction to $480–$520 (50% retracement)
4. Stock Price Scenarios
| Time Horizon | Target Price | Scenario | Upside/Downside vs $964 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 months | $880 – $900 | Minor pullback, macro uncertainty | -7% to -9% |
| Ideal Buy Zone | $480 – $520 | Major correction / reset | -45% to -50% |
| 2025 | $1000 – $1050 | Strong earnings, IPO recovery | +4% to +9% |
| 2026+ | $1100 – $1200 | Full cycle expansion | +14% to +24% |
5. Key Risks
| Risk Factor | Level | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Overvaluation | High | High P/E for a bank raises red flags |
| Revenue Cyclicality | Medium | Strong dependence on deal-making and trading volume |
| Interest Rate Sensitivity | Medium | Impacts spreads and deal flow |
| Regulation & Oversight | Low | Long-standing concern, but manageable for GS |
| Global Slowdown Risk | Medium | Weak IPO/M&A cycle = lower income |
6. Final Verdict & Recommendation
| Factor | Evaluation |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | Positive but uneven |
| Margins | Solid |
| EPS Momentum | Strong |
| Current Valuation | Too expensive |
| Long-term Business Quality | Excellent |
🎯 Final Verdict: HOLD — Buy Only Under $800
Goldman Sachs is:
✅ An elite financial institution
❌ Overpriced in an uncertain cycle
📉 Ideal Buy Zone: $480 – $520 (50% retracement)
⚠️ At $964, nearly all upside is priced in.
Disclaimer :
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investments carry risk, including the loss of capital. Conduct your own research before making any decision.
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