Alibaba Bets $100M on Humanoid Robots — Could X Square Robot Be China’s Next AI Unicorn?

by | Sep 8, 2025 | Market News | 0 comments

Introduction

Alibaba Cloud is doubling down on the future of humanoid robotics, leading a $100 million funding round for Shenzhen-based X Square Robot. The young startup, founded in late 2023, has already raised over $280 million across eight funding rounds and is positioning itself at the cutting edge of embodied AI — robots that integrate artificial intelligence into physical hardware.

One of the Best Brokers in Europe

Investors seeking exposure to Chinese robotics and AI startups often access the sector indirectly through Alibaba (NYSE: BABA; HKG: 9988) via brokers like Interactive Brokers Europe, DEGIRO, and Saxo Bank, which provide access to both U.S. and Hong Kong markets.

Financial Performance

  • Funding raised: ~$280 million to date.
  • Latest round: $100 million led by Alibaba Cloud.
  • Revenue: Early-stage, with sales to schools, hotels, and retirement homes.
  • Valuation: Undisclosed, but IPO preparations are underway for 2026.

Key Highlights

  • Launch of Quanta X2 humanoid robot, capable of cleaning, sensing pressure, and mimicking human grip.
  • First company to release an open-source embodied AI foundation model (Wall-OSS).
  • Uses Nvidia chips for computing but sources other components domestically.
  • Plans for IPO next year.

Profitability and Valuation

While X Square Robot is not yet profitable, the AI robotics TAM suggests that its valuation could skyrocket once products scale. Current humanoids cost $80,000, but management targets $10,000 consumer-level robots within 3–5 years.

Debt and Leverage

As a startup, X Square Robot relies on equity financing rather than debt, minimizing financial risk but exposing investors to dilution in future rounds.

Growth Prospects

  • IPO within 12–18 months could open global access to retail investors.
  • Expansion into Japan and Singapore already underway.
  • Potential mass-market adoption if costs fall to $10,000/unit.
  • China aims to lead in embodied AI, positioning startups like X Square ahead of Western peers.

Technical Analysis (Alibaba: BABA)

  • Short-term (1–3 months): Support at $75, upside toward $82–85.
  • Medium-term (6–12 months): If robotics story gains traction, target $95–100.
  • Long-term (18–24 months): Potential rebound to $120–130, driven by AI monetization.

Stop Loss: $70

Potential Catalysts

  • IPO confirmation and venue announcement.
  • Strategic partnerships with global tech or manufacturing leaders.
  • AI breakthroughs enabling autonomy by 2027.
  • Chinese government subsidies for robotics.

Leadership and Strategic Direction

COO Yang Qian has positioned X Square Robot as a pioneer in open-source robotics. With Alibaba’s backing and participation from HongShan (formerly Sequoia China) and Meituan, the startup enjoys elite investor confidence.

Impact of Macroeconomic Factors

  • U.S.-China tech rivalry could accelerate China’s push for domestic AI hardware.
  • Falling hardware costs critical for consumer adoption.
  • Global aging demographics support demand for robotic helpers in care facilities.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The humanoid robot market is projected to exceed $150 billion by 2035, with embodied AI integration potentially making robots as ubiquitous as smartphones.

Market Sentiment and Engagement

Investor enthusiasm is high. The deal has been widely covered, and retail speculation is rising that X Square could become “China’s Tesla of humanoids.”

Conclusions, Target Price Objectives, and Stop Losses

Alibaba’s $100M bet underscores confidence in humanoid robotics as the next AI frontier.

  • Short-term (BABA): $82–85
  • Medium-term: $95–100
  • Long-term: $120–130
  • Stop Loss: $70

For early-stage investors, X Square represents a high-risk, high-reward play that could redefine human-machine interaction.

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This analysis serves as information only and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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