General Mills (GIS), a global food industry giant, continues to demonstrate resilient financial performance despite a tense macroeconomic backdrop. With declining valuation multiples, consistently positive free cash flow, and a lower market cap compared to 2023, the stock offers a compelling defensive profile for long-term investors — though not without risks.
Stock Overview (as of December 2025)
- Estimated Share Price: ~$49.30
- Market Cap: ~$25.9 billion
- P/E Ratio: 9.2
- Price/Free Cash Flow (2024): 31.19
- Valuation: Trading below historical averages – “discounted” valuation
These compressed multiples suggest upside potential if margins improve.
Revenue & Profitability (2023 – 2025)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS | EBITDA | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $19.857 B | $2.496 B | $4.31 | $4.211 B | 12.57% |
| 2024 | $19.486 B | $2.285 B | $4.10 | $3.839 B | 11.72% |
| 2025* | $18.777 B | $2.526 B | $4.63 | $3.488 B | 13.45% |
Earnings remained stable despite revenue decline
Revenue fell –5.4% over 2 years, but margins held strong
Cash Flow Overview
| Period | Free Cash Flow | CapEx | Operating Cash Flow | Financing Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $2.528 B | –$774 M | $3.302 B | –$2.272 B |
| 2024 | $2.292 B | –$625 M | $2.918 B | –$1.180 B |
| 2025* | $1.782 B | –$577 M | $2.360 B | –$4.036 B |
Strong cash used in financing activities (buybacks, debt repayment)
FCF is declining but remains positive → sign of financial stability
Key Risks to Monitor
Declining recurring revenue → potential market saturation?
High debt repayments → puts pressure on free cash flow
Raw material inflation → directly impacts COGS
Lack of R&D investment → innovation constraints?
Analyst Price Targets & Timeframes
| Scenario | Target Price | Timeframe | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| 📉 Bearish | $44 | Early 2026 | Revenue decline, margin compression |
| ⚖️ Neutral | $51–$53 | Mid-2026 | Margin stabilization, dividend yield support |
| 🚀 Bullish | $58 | End of 2026 | Macro recovery, favorable base effect, pricing power |
Estimated Fair Value (Discounted Cash Flow): ~$54
Current Price (~$49) = ~10% discount vs fair value
Buy or Sell? Final Verdict
BUY Recommendation
General Mills appears undervalued based on its fundamentals. It generates consistent free cash flow, has a defensive profile, and exhibits low volatility.
Best suited for income-focused or conservative portfolios with a 1–2 year horizon.
Conclusion: Should You Buy General Mills?
The stock has lost around 13% of its market cap in two years, yet remains profitable, cash-flow resilient, and trading at a low valuation. For investors seeking a safe entry point into a defensive play with 10–18% upside, GIS is worth serious consideration.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investments carry risk, including loss of capital. Always do your own research before making any investment decision.
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