Introduction
Imagine having the foresight to make the ultimate investment moves. In the TV series Ozark, Marty Byrde, a skilled financial planner, finds himself navigating high-stakes investments as he launders money for a cartel. His strategic mind and financial savvy keep him one step ahead in the game. Now, picture Marty with a different kind of insider advantage: access to Bitcoin’s price history.
What if Marty Byrde could see every low and high in Bitcoin’s volatile journey? With his ability to spot opportunity and manage risk, he could capitalize on each crash and rebound cycle. Since 2012, Bitcoin has crashed seven times, only to rise again and reach a new all-time high each time. This pattern would have given Marty seven perfect chances to buy low and sell high, growing his wealth with every cycle.
Marty’s journey would start with a strategic Bitcoin purchase in December 2011, exiting eight months later for a 482% profit. His final trade would be in November 2022, buying Bitcoin at $15,479 and cashing out 16 months later in March 2024 for an impressive 377% gain. By this last trade, Marty’s hypothetical fortune would have skyrocketed to an unbelievable $9,132,874,255.41.
For those interested, I’ve laid out Marty’s fictional trade history in my first comment below.
Bull and Bear Cycles in Bitcoin
In this scenario, I’m defining a bear market as any significant decline from a peak lasting more than a month, ending at the lowest price point between two all-time highs. Conversely, a bull market begins at that low and continues up to the next higher all-time high.
Key Observations from Marty’s Hypothetical Trading Journey
- Each bear market bottom was higher than the previous one, and each bull market peak exceeded the last.
- Bear markets were generally short, averaging around six months, with only one extending beyond a year (14 months in 2013).
- Bull markets lasted longer, averaging nine months, with three of them lasting over a year.
- The latest bull market began in August and is just over two months old.
- The previous bull market, starting in November 2022, lasted 16 months until March this year, delivering a 377% gain.
When’s the Best Time to Buy Bitcoin?
Historically, November has been the optimal month to buy Bitcoin, with an average gain of 39% since 2011. The period from October through March has consistently outperformed April through September. While Bitcoin’s price saw an average rise of 45% from April to September, the November-to-April period delivered average returns of 126%.
It looks like history may be setting up to repeat itself once again, and with the upcoming bull run, other cryptocurrencies—especially specific altcoins—are positioned to deliver even greater gains. This is a rare opportunity to get informed and be prepared. To join us, simply click the “Join our newsletter” button at the top right for free analyses, insights, and lessons. For real-time alerts on positions, scaling, and selling opportunities, you can either subscribe to the newsletter or access premium alerts via the following link.
In addition, we invite you to explore our latest article on how to invest in cryptocurrency. This comprehensive guide covers everything you need to know to navigate the exciting world of digital assets. If you want to learn how to unearth cryptocurrencies yourself, we recommend the following book , which details the best decision-making process for cryptographic protocols.
0 Comments