Introduction
Markets surged Thursday morning, fueled by a game-changing U.S. federal court decision that invalidated former President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs and Nvidia’s explosive earnings. The dual catalysts have reignited investor optimism, especially around AI and tech.
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Financial Performance
The S&P 500 futures rose 0.9%, Nasdaq 100 futures leapt 1.4%, and Dow futures gained 0.4%. Nvidia’s Q1 results—$44.06B in revenue and $0.96 EPS vs. $43.31B and $0.93 expected—marked one of the strongest earnings beats in 2025.
Key Highlights
- Trump tariffs ruled unconstitutional—legal basis overstepped
- Nvidia’s 73% YoY growth in data center revenue
- Nasdaq up 9.5% in May, biggest monthly gain since 2023
- AI remains the dominant growth story
Profitability and Valuation
Nvidia trades at a forward P/E of 41x, justified by its growth in AI infrastructure. Tech valuations remain stretched, but EPS beats across the board are restoring confidence.
Debt and Leverage
While Nvidia maintains manageable debt levels, broader tech remains underleveraged—a strength in this rising rate environment. Low leverage ratios across major indices could support further gains.
Growth Prospects
AI-driven chip demand is accelerating. Nvidia’s momentum could ripple across related plays like AMD, ASML, and C3.ai. Markets are also pricing in tariff relief as a growth stimulant, particularly for multinationals exposed to EU and Asia.
Technical Analysis
Nvidia:
- Near-term resistance: $140
- Support: $128
- 20/50/200 DMA all trending upward
- RSI: 62 – not overbought yet
- Price Targets:
- Short-term (1 week): $145
- Medium-term (1–3 months): $155
- Long-term (by end of 2025): $165–$170
S&P 500:
- Forming a bullish ascending triangle
- Resistance: 5,400
- If breached, next target: 5,500
- Short-term upside: 2.5%–3.5% possible in June
Potential Catalysts
- Trump appeal efforts using Section 301 or 122 of the Trade Act
- Fed comments on inflation trajectory
- June tech earnings (Salesforce, C3.ai, etc.)
- Global stimulus (BoK just cut rates to 2.5%)
Leadership and Strategic Direction
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang continues to guide the firm through transformational AI adoption. Elon Musk stepping back from U.S. government roles is seen as a return to Tesla focus—a bullish narrative for TSLA holders.
Impact of Macroeconomic Factors
The court’s strike on tariffs eliminates a major overhang. DXY is up 0.2%, but the U.S. dollar remains fragile due to broader “Sell America” sentiment. Rate cuts in Asia and easing inflation in Europe could provide liquidity tailwinds.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
AI’s TAM is now estimated north of $1.5 trillion by 2030. Nvidia’s data center market alone is expected to exceed $600 billion. Global chip demand from EVs, robotics, and edge computing adds to this bullish scenario.
Market Sentiment and Engagement
- Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) is surging, especially among retail
- Options volume on Nvidia up 47%
- AI ETF inflows at highest since 2021
- Retail investors are re-entering the market, driven by momentum and macro clarity
Conclusions, Target Price Objectives, and Stop Losses
Nvidia (NVDA)
- Short-term TP: $145
- Mid-term TP: $155
- Long-term TP: $165–$170
- Stop Loss: $125
S&P 500 (SPX)
- Short-term TP: 5,450
- Mid-term TP: 5,520
- Long-term TP: 5,700
- Stop Loss: 5,260
This could be the inflection point bulls have waited for. Between macro relief and AI-driven earnings, the market is primed for a breakout—don’t get left behind.
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This analysis serves as information only and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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